Ukraine After Trump

Welcome to the Audere Atlas, the Audere Group’s fortnightly update on global geopolitical trends, how we engage with them, and what they mean for your organisation.

This week we take a look at Trump’s plans for Ukraine. Having pledged to “end the war in 24hrs,” we explore what his imminent entry into the Oval Office means for foreign – namely US – firms operating in the country, as well as those still seeking to enter the Ukrainian market.

The Audere Atlas offers timely, actionable insights that both support key decision-making and highlight areas for further exploration and understanding.

The Bottom Line

Trump’s approach to Ukraine presents an uncertain yet opportunistic landscape for businesses investing in the country. Since 2022, the United States has provided approximately $175 billion in aid to Ukraine, and while Trump’s “America First” stance raises questions about the continuation of this kinetic support in the immediate term, given the leverage he is likely to seek for US firms in defence and reconstruction contracts, enterprises must remain agile and forward-thinking to navigate the evolving geopolitical landscape. That said, the outcome of any negotiations remains highly uncertain, given the conflicting priorities between ‘East’ and ‘West’, growing tensions among the US, Europe, and NATO, adherence to international law, and the significant expectations of the Ukrainian people.

The Brief

Since 2022, the US has provided approximately $175billion in aid to Ukraine, with $69.8 billion allocated specifically to military equipment – the highest contribution of any nation. But Trump’s “America First” foreign policy stance, his contentious relationship with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, his extensive contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and his stated intention to bring “peace” as soon as possible, all raise questions over the continuation of this support.

Trump consistently expressed scepticism toward US military assistance to Ukraine during his campaign, suggesting a preference for reducing involvement and advocating for European allies to take on a greater share of the burden while refusing to support “Ukrainian victory.” Trump’s early nominations for key cabinet posts and advisory roles, including NATO sceptics Ukraine sceptics Marco Rubio, Mike Waltz, Pete Hegseth and Tulsi Gabbard, were notable, replacing the prominent pro-Ukraine voices within the Republican Party such as former Ambassador Nikki Haley, and bolster the view that Trump will seek to coerce Ukraine into negotiation.

Although Trump has not signalled how he plans to “end the war in 24 hours,” speculation has thus far centred on a possible negotiated settlement largely based on the so-called “Trump Peace Plan,” released by American First Policy Institute on 26 July. The initiative proposes that the US continue to arm Ukraine to ensure its ability to defend itself, but only on the condition that Kyiv freezes the conflict along the “existing frontline,” and importantly, “participate in peace talks with Russia.” To encourage the Kremlin’s acquiescence, the strategy offers to take Ukraine’s NATO accession off the table for “an extended period” – the carrot. And the stick? If Moscow fails to comply, the delivery of military aid to Ukraine will accelerate.

The plan is understandably unpopular in Kyiv, especially considering President Zelensky’s five-point “victory plan” centring on NATO membership and territorial sovereignty. It also overlooks key difficulties in its inception, namely that under Article 73 of the Ukrainian constitution, it is unlawful for Zelensky to give up any territory without a nationwide referendum, a poll that is every bit as logistically challenging as it is unlikely, especially considering Ukraine’s Presidential elections are already overdue. Likewise, both its carrot and stick may appear under whelming to Moscow. The Kremlin may look beyond the end of Trump’s term in 2028 and fear a shift in US policy towards supporting a future for Ukraine within NATO, rendering any proposal to “postpone” its ascension somewhat moot. Similarly, Putin may calculate that the likelihood of Trump expanding military aid is small given his broadly isolationist constituencies of support, and may call his bluff. Trump’s supporters in the US have been critical of the Biden administration’s recent decision to permit Ukraine’s use of long-range US ATACAMS missiles against targets in Russia, and are likely to react negatively to any moves by Trump that risk catalysing a chain reaction of unchecked escalation.

Within the context of growing Russian territorial gains in recent months, and poised to commit some 50,000 Russian and North Korean troops to reclaim Ukrainian-occupied Kursk, Putin may seek to elongate any peace process (whilst blaming Kyiv) until the Kremlin’s territorial goals are met in the hotspots of Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and the wider Donetsk oblast, as well as Ukrainian-occupied Kursk. In light of the circumstances, Putin likely considers he has the upper hand over Trump. As such, he may seek to dictate the pace of any accords which could result in a dangerous deal in veneer only, where Russian interests are prioritised and a hot peace prevails.

The above scenario does, however, risk embarrassing the US President and may incite a shift in Trump’s stance towards preference for a “peace through strength” approach in Ukraine, an approach that maybe deemed vital signalling resolve to adversaries in Beijing and Pyongyang. In this instance, aid to Ukraine may continue along the Biden template, though there may be higher restrictions on US weapons usage and a greater reliance on state loans as opposed to bilateral aid. Nevertheless, this scenario would provide the G7 with more time to increase Ukraine’s defensive capabilities and organise additional aid packages.

Ultimately, it is difficult to predict what Trump’s actual approach will be given his first-term foreign policy highlighted erratic decision-making influenced by strong emotional reactions and a transactional approach to alliances. Equally, what Trump promised on the campaign trail may differ radically from what he can achieve once in office, where he may find himself constrained by reality. Indeed, the stated approach oversimplifies the conflict’s complexity, particularly given Putin’s unwavering objectives of securing Ukraine’s future neutrality and vast territorial concessions, which extend to Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk. These have been reinforced with the recent escalation in Russian missile strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure and civilian targets, as well as Moscow’s first use of a new, nuclear-capable intermediate-range ballistic missile.

So What?

For enterprises already operating in, or close to, Ukraine’s defence sector, the policy shifts and general uncertainty under a new Trump administration present a complex array of challenges. Firms already operating in Ukraine or those seeking to enter the market to assist with the immediate demand for kinetic equipment will almost certainly encounter increased policy volatility as direct US assistance under the most probable Trump Peace Plan scenario will likely wane. Existing defence contractors in Ukraine are particularly vulnerable as reductions in US military assistance in the medium term could translate into fewer contracts for weapon systems and logistical support, compelling firms to seek alternative clients or diversify their services. Firms aiming to enter the Ukrainian market will likewise have to contend with a variety of barriers, not least diminished US diplomatic support.

Nonetheless, bolstered by the $50 billion G7 fund and the release of the final $6 billion under the Presidential Drawdown Authority, Kyiv’s resolve is unlikely to falter in the short to medium term. This resilience presents opportunities for companies specialising in niche areas such as technology, training, maintenance, and cybersecurity, as well as those providing artillery ammunition support and UAVs – both critical to Ukraine’s defence strategy. Additionally, Trump’s foreign policy could pressure European nations to increase their defence spending, opening doors for US firms willing to shift their focus to markets like Poland and the Baltic states.

Meanwhile, a successfully negotiated settlement would likely necessitate the replenishment of stockpiles, the development of deterrence measures, and the reconstruction of Ukraine’s critical and industrial infrastructure. This is expected to create significant opportunities, particularly for US firms, which may benefit from favourable contract arrangements due to the leverage anticipated to be applied by Trump.

However the President-elect chooses to approach Ukraine, firms seeking to adapt to the changing geopolitical environment in Ukraine, or indeed to enter the market, will need strategic guidance. As market trends, compliance requirements, and the overall risk landscape shift, crafting customised entry strategies and screening reliable partners will become increasingly important to win businesses a competitive edge. Having navigated Ukraine’s complex business environment during more than two years of war, Audere’s on-the-ground experience means we are well-placed to provide tailored market entry due diligence and monitoring services to ensure informed decision-making.

Keen to know more?

The Audere Group is an intelligence and risk advisory firm offering integrated solutions to companies in complex situations.
 
We specialise in mitigating the financial, reputational and physical risks faced by our clients in markets across the world through a 360-degree range of services incorporating security advisory, crisis management and strategic intelligence to inform decision making around transactions, supply chains and disputes.

Contact us to learn how our bespoke risk advisory services can work with your unique circumstances to navigate high-risk environments and changing landscapes through the provision of hard-to-reach intelligence and clear analysis.

_{Disclaimer: The content of this report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal or financial advice. For further details or specific inquiries, please reach out to our team directl}