Iran: Regional Power or Paper Tiger?

On Thursday November 7th, the Audere Group hosted 28 clients and guests for an insightful dinner and discussion titled “Iran: Regional Power or Paper Tiger?”.

With two distinguished speakers: Nicholas Hopton, former UK Ambassador to Iran, currently Director General of The Middle East Association, and Professor Ali Ansari, Professor in Modern History with reference to the Middle East at the University of St Andrews in Scotland, also the founding director of the Institute for Iranian Studies.

Under the Chatham House Rule, the evening offered insights into Iran’s current position in the Middle East, observing historical context with an analysis of the broader geopolitical climate. The discussion then explored the complex dynamics between regional powers, potential allies, and the “boxer’s clinch” relationship between Iran and nations like Saudi Arabia—all within a landscape notably “absent of an umpire” to mediate tensions.

With insights from the past, commentary focused on addressing themes such as the challenges of investment and the impact of international sanctions. It was noted that these sanctions act as “salt in a self-inflicted wound,” compounding Iran’s economic struggles; exacerbated further by issues such as the country’s water shortages, not due to insufficient rainfall but rather poor planning and infrastructure. This has significantly affected hydropower generation, leading to severe power disruptions and widespread blackouts in Tehran and other cities, sparking protests and further unrest.

Towards the end of the evening, attention shifted to cultural tensions within Iran, punctuated by an anti-hijab protest by a young Iranian woman at a Tehran university. This sparked broader conversations about government censorship and control with one experienced business leader remarking that Iran was facing a dilemma centred on “reform or die, or reform and die.” The evening concluded with reflections on Iran’s future, with a final comment cautioning against the notion that simply removing the current leadership could “easily put Iran back together.”

If you’re a client of the Audere Group and interested in future events, please let us know.