Oil, Crime & Capital in Latin America

Welcome to the Audere Atlas, the Audere Group’s fortnightly update on global geopolitical trends, how we engage with them, and what they mean for your organisation.

This week, we assess how Peru’s election fits into a wider shift across Latin America towards more conservative, market-oriented and security-focused governments. This political turn may create new opportunities in energy, mining, infrastructure and security-adjacent sectors. But it will not eliminate the region’s core constraints: fragmented politics, weak state capacity, organised crime and the need to balance closer security ties with Washington against continued economic dependence on China.

The Audere Atlas offers timely, actionable insights that both support key decision-making and highlight areas for further exploration and understanding.

The Bottom Line

Peru’s recent election is part of a broader Latin American shift towards market-friendly, security-focused politics. This creates a more constructive environment for investment in energy, mining and infrastructure, especially as Colombia revisits hydrocarbons policy and Guyana, Brazil and Venezuela grow in importance to global oil markets. But the region’s opportunity set is inseparable from its risks. Organised crime, fragmented legislatures, sanctions exposure and US–China competition will increasingly shape the operating environment for investors.

The Brief

Peru’s election offers a useful entry point into Latin America’s new risk map. After weeks of protests, fraud allegations and contested ballot reviews, conservative candidate Keiko Fujimori was declared winner of the June runoff against leftist congressman Roberto Sánchez by one of the narrowest margins in Peru’s recent history. Her victory – secured by roughly 50,000 votes out of 18 million – was welcomed by markets, but it does not amount to a stabilising mandate. Fujimori will inherit a fragmented Congress, a polarised electorate and a state still marked by the instability that has seen Peru cycle through a succession of presidents since 2016.

^{Image: Keiko Fujimori, presidential candidate of the Popular Force party, departs a polling station after voting during general elections in Lima, Peru, Sunday, April 12, 2026. Source: AP}

The result mirrors a wider regional pattern. An electoral cycle that began in late 2025 and continued through the first half of 2026 has reinforced a shift towards conservative, market-oriented and security-focused governments. Elections in Peru, Colombia and Costa Rica reflected voter concern over organised crime, weak growth and institutional dysfunction. The direction of travel is now, on paper at least, more favourable to private capital, fiscal consolidation and tougher security policy, although the capacity to deliver reform remains limited.

In Colombia, the election of Abelardo De La Espriella signals a sharper turn towards hardline security policy and a more pro-hydrocarbons economic agenda. His government is expected to deepen security cooperation with Washington and revisit restrictions on oil and gas development. Costa Rica’s election similarly reflected a growing regional demand for stronger state action on crime and economic stagnation. Together, these results suggest a broadening conservative trend across the Andean region and Central America.

Brazil and Mexico remain the most important exceptions. Both are governed by centre-left administrations pursuing more autonomous foreign policies and maintaining deep economic ties with China. Brazil’s October presidential election will therefore be the most important political event in the region during the second half of 2026. A Lula victory would likely preserve Brazil’s pragmatic balancing between Washington and Beijing, while a victory by Flávio Bolsonaro would reinforce the wider regional shift towards closer alignment with the US on security and foreign policy.

This is not, however, a clean geopolitical realignment. Closer security cooperation with the US will not displace China’s essential economic role in the region, where it remains the principal trading partner for much of South America and a major investor in infrastructure, energy and mining. Most governments will therefore continue to balance tougher security ties with Washington against sustained commercial engagement with Beijing.

The cross-cutting backdrop is the growing reach of organised crime. In Peru, illegal and informal mining are increasingly intertwined with local politics, environmental degradation, extortion and violence. In Ecuador and Chile, deteriorating security has weakened investor confidence. In Colombia, armed groups remain embedded in narcotics, mining and rural logistics. Across the region, criminal groups are no longer simply a law-enforcement problem; they are becoming a governance and economic problem.

So What?

Latin America’s political cycle is becoming more supportive of investment, just as the region’s energy, mining and security risks are becoming harder to separate. A rightward turn may improve the tone of policymaking for business, but it will not by itself resolve the weaknesses that most often delay projects: fragmented legislatures, weak institutions, criminal penetration of local economies and contested social licence.

Energy is the clearest example. The region is becoming more important to global supply as disruption in the Middle East and uncertainty around maritime chokepoints increase the value of Atlantic Basin crude. Guyana and Brazil will remain central to this story, while Colombia’s political shift could reopen parts of the hydrocarbons sector after a period of regulatory hostility. Venezuela sits in a different category: its reserves remain commercially significant, but any renewed opening would be shaped by sanctions, debt, counterparty risk and degraded infrastructure. Peru’s relevance lies less in oil production than in the gas, power, refining and logistics systems that support its mining economy and wider industrial resilience.

For mining and critical-minerals investors, the same logic applies. Peru, Chile, Brazil, Argentina and Bolivia will remain central to copper, lithium, gold and industrial-metal supply chains. But the investability of these assets will depend increasingly on the conditions around them rather than simply the resources beneath them. Community dynamics, informal mining, water stress, local political networks, contractor exposure and route security should be treated as core financial variables.

Security and compliance risks will also move closer to the centre of  investment decisions. The US designation of organised-crime groups as  foreign-terrorist organisations will broaden sanctions, anti-money-laundering  and counterparty-screening requirements. Companies operating in Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador and Mexico will need stronger visibility over  suppliers, logistics providers, local partners and payment channels. In Brazil,  the designation of Primeiro Comando da Capital and Comando Vermelho will be  especially important given the groups’ extensive presence across illicit  markets and their infiltration of legitimate sectors of the economy.

^{Image: Illegal gold mining in the Amazon Basin. Source: International Institute for Strategic Studies}

The operating environment will therefore reward firms that can test political promises against ground conditions. A pro-market administration may improve sentiment, but project delivery will still depend on whether governments can secure transport corridors, manage local opposition, protect infrastructure, formalise illicit economies and sustain reform through divided legislatures. The key question is not simply whether Latin America is turning right, but whether its states can convert that turn into governable, investable conditions.

Audere Group can support clients operating in this environment through political risk monitoring, enhanced due diligence, sanctions and counterparty screening, source-of-wealth investigations, stakeholder mapping, security-risk assessments and physical security provision. In Latin America, this can include intelligence-led assessments of mining concessions, energy infrastructure, contractors, local intermediaries and exposure to informal or illegal mining networks. Across the region, Audere can help clients assess opportunities in oil, gas, critical minerals, infrastructure and logistics while identifying where political volatility, organised crime or regulatory exposure could threaten value.

Latin America’s resource story is no longer simply about abundance. It is about control: who secures the routes, who governs the assets, who writes the rules, and who captures the rents. Peru’s election may reassure markets, but it also reveals the deeper regional reality. The outlook is more investable in some sectors, but not necessarily more stable.

Keen to Know More?

The Audere Group is an intelligence and risk advisory firm offering integrated solutions to companies in complex situations.

We specialise in mitigating the financial, reputational and physical risks faced by our clients in markets across the world through a 360-degree range of services incorporating security advisory, crisis management and strategic intelligence to inform decision making around transactions, supply chains and disputes.

Contact us to learn how our bespoke risk advisory services can work with your unique circumstances to navigate high-risk environments and changing landscapes through the provision of hard-to-reach intelligence and clear analysis.

_{Disclaimer: The content of this report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal or financial advice. For further details or specific inquiries, please reach out to our team directly.}